A definite or indefinite view of the future?

Could AI rebuild the middle class?

Next:Economy Newsletter image by jwoodruff   What if AI could rebuild the middle class? The malignant potential effects of AI are valid concerns that should be discussed. But those concerns tend to drown out the equally important discussions about what AI can—and should—do. In this NPR piece, Greg Rosalsky takes a look at a more optimistic scenario. He quotes MIT’s David Autor, one of the top labor economists in the world, who posits that "if we get our act together, the age of Artificial Intelligence could be one in which we rebuild the middle class." Autor says that until now computing has polarized roles—creating jobs for high-income, college-educated workers while gutting jobs in manufacturing and offices that once provided solid opportunities to Americans without a college degree. But AI could be different. Less-skilled workers and those without degrees could get the biggest boost from AI, particularly if we proceed with that goal in mind and make smart policies. One way or the other, AI will certainly disrupt the job market, Autor says, but it could also enable us to bring the dream of a more prosperous and more equal economy into reality. + From the O'Reilly Radar blog: "Pause AI?"   A definite vision of the future Optimism—combined with action—can prove pretty powerful. In what he calls "an exercise in definite optimism," Brink Lindsey explores definite versus indefinite visions of the future. "Whatever you think about Peter Thiel with regard to other matters, his views on definite versus indefinite visions of the future offer real insight," Lindsey says. "In Thiel's view, an ethos of definite optimism prevailed in the United States for most of its history, most recently in the 1950s and 60s, and helps to explain the country's unprecedented dynamism. People had a clear, concrete vision of how the future would be different from the past and were committed to realizing that vision in practice. This ethos has been lost, according to Thiel, since the 1970s." Lindsey says this passage from Thiel's book Zero to One does a good job of describing the concept of indefinite and definite visions of the future: You can expect the future to take a definite form or you can treat it as hazily uncertain. If you treat the future as something definite, it makes sense to understand it in advance and to work to shape it. But if you expect an indefinite future ruled by randomness, you'll give up on trying to master it. Indefinite attitudes to the future explain what's most dysfunctional in our world today. Process trumps substance: when people lack concrete plans to carry out, they use formal rules to assemble a portfolio of various options. This describes Americans today….By the time a student gets to college, he's spent a decade curating a bewilderingly diverse resume to prepare for a completely unknowable future. Come what may, he's ready—for nothing in particular. Lindsey's essay goes beyond explaining definite and indefinite visions of the future; he also looks at the "technological advances needed to take us to the next level," the reasons there "will be a strong constituency against advancing further," and how to break out of this trap. Read the rest of it here. + Concrete Economics by Brad DeLong and Stephen Cohen This message was sent to alexvarboffin.abbb@blogger.com. You are receiving this because you've signed up to receive email from us. Privacy Policy | Unsubscribe From All | Unsubscribe From Next:Economy O'Reilly Media, Inc., 1005 Gravenstein Highway North, Sebastopol, CA, 95472 (707) 827-7000