| | Rising temperatures and economic growth In this interview, Gregory Casey, coauthor with Stephie Fried and Ethan Goode of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter "How Long Do Rising Temperatures Affect Economic Growth?," discusses the interplay of climate change and GDP growth—how rising temperatures permanently affect the level of economic output (but not the growth rate of economic output), how to improve estimates based on historical data, and the hard-to-quantify effects of tail risks. But even with the more optimistic long-term outlook on productivity growth that Casey, Fried, and Goode predict in their economic letter, as long as temperatures continue to rise, productivity will slow, and the effects won't be felt evenly. As Casey points out, "This is another important motivation for climate policy. Even if global impacts end up being moderate, the impacts in poorer and more vulnerable places will likely be much larger." + "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics" by Gregory Casey, Stephie Fried, and Ethan Goode + Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet by Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman | | | | | Humanity is shrinking An increasingly extreme climate isn't the only threat to global economic growth. Population is stagnating across the board—fertility rates in many countries are currently lower than the "replacement level" of 2.1 live births per woman (and dropping fast). And even countries with higher fertility rates are trending down. In this post , Noah Smith considers the "substantial economic drag" this shrinking global population may cause and how it might be addressed through public policy. "The only possible long-term solution," Smith says, "is active stabilization—we need policies that decrease fertility when it's a little above 2.1, and raise fertility when it's a little below 2.1." Of course, that's easier said than done, but there are a few policies that have been proven effective: We know we can decrease fertility by making birth control more available, increasing urbanization, and incentivizing people to stay in school longer (which delays family formation).... ...At least one type of pro-natalist policy works, and possibly two. The kind that we're pretty sure is effective is having the government provide universal free child care. Taking the burden of child care off of people's hands, and doing it in a reliable predictable way, means that the prospect of kids doesn't mean the prospect of yet more toil and drudgery for working-age people. The policy that we're starting to realize might be effective is parental leave. In the end, this may only raise the fertility rate a few percentage points, not enough for countries like the US (at about 1.6) or China (at about 1.1), so Smith outlines a few more speculative "sci-fi" policies that could work. Significantly, they—like the more easily implemented policies above—are aimed at unburdening parents and "mak[ing] the job of taking care of kids as easy as possible." + "Can Government Policies Reverse Undesirable Declines in Fertility?" + "Pro-Natal Policies Work, But They Come With a Hefty Price Tag." | | | | | So is happiness. . .unless you're married America's happiness rating has been slipping since 1972, according to recent research from University of Chicago emeritus economics professor Sam Peltzman. One reason: As the Atlantic's Olga Khazan puts it in an article ruminating on the findings, "Married people are happier, and Americans aren't getting married as much." Khazan explores the entanglement of marriage and happiness in depth, asking, Is it a matter of correlation—that is, happy people are more likely to get married? Or does the close relationship presumably at the heart of a marriage actually foster happiness? (Unsurprisingly, the research is mixed.) But as Khazan's fellow Atlantic writer Derek Thompson argues on X (formerly Twitter), "I don't think you can have a serious conversation about the effect of marriage on happiness in 2023 without pointing out that high-income ppl are now *much* more likely to get and stay married...and are already, and have long been, happier than the middle class and poor." | | | |
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