Watching for tipping points

Is society (or business) ready?

Next:Economy Newsletter Cropped image by D M on Flickr   Are we there yet? One of the fascinating things about tipping points (in retrospect) is how small and commonplace they sometimes seem. An industry, a market, or a regime can appear invincible, and then a small, unanticipated (or unnoticed) tipping point is reached and the entire landscape suddenly tilts in an entirely new direction. Some tipping points can signal devastating effects to come (think ocean temperatures); others simply lead to a reshuffling of industries or markets and new opportunities (and a few challenges) for innovators and investors. Here're a few examples of the latter.   Robotaxis Driverless cars still seem a bit sci-fi. It's not the engineering that seems fantastical—we've grown accustomed to cruise control, cars that park themselves, and airplane autopilot technology. It's the societal aspects that we find hard to wrap our heads around: ethical issues in programming driverless cars , insurance when there's no blame to assign in accidents, questions like "Do you let your seven-year-old borrow the car alone to get to a playdate?" Not to mention policy issues: Can cops ticket driverless cars? Who regulates their safety? Will cheap and easy car services increase congestion? Will we still need street parking? What are the near-term and long-term economic issues? Whether we're ready to answer these questions or not, the tipping point has come. Robotaxis are operating in San Francisco—and they aren't part of a pilot project. They're a working commercial enterprise. It's well past time to decide what to do about it.   Heat pumps Mini-split heat pump HVAC systems are more common in Europe and Asia (in part because they're easier to retrofit into older buildings), but they're still relatively rare in the US. With the 2023 IRA tax credits, that may change. Experts say 98% of US households would cut their energy costs by installing a heat pump, and by doing so they'd reduce the total annual emissions by at least 160 million metric tons by 2032. The global market is surging—the 2022 market was valued at US$98.4 billion and is expected to surpass $205.1 billion by 2030. Besides the tax credit, several factors have led to this growth: increased efficiency, environmental awareness, construction booms, heat waves in regions that don't usually need AC (heat pumps provide AC as well), and spiraling Russian natural gas costs, among others. + "Everything You Need to Know About the Wild World of Heat Pumps" + The Future of Heat Pumps (PDF) + From Bloomberg (gated) "Cooling Technology's Next Act Could Be Even More Important Than Today's Heat Pumps"   Lawn equipment Home Depot, the largest home improvement store in America, has announced that by 2028, 85% of the outdoor lawn equipment (mowers, leaf blowers, trimmers) it sells will be electric with rechargeable batteries. The company estimates that this will reduce 2.2 million metric tons of pollution annually from the exhaust pipes of residential lawn equipment, but it says that's not the only reason for the change . Home Depot is betting that customers will prefer equipment that is much quieter and requires less maintenance, and it believes the price point for the equipment will be similar.   Gradually. Then suddenly. Sometimes an idea or technology lingers for quite a while before the tipping point is reached. Often price or lack of political will is what stalls momentum. If electric lawn equipment can be priced close to gas-powered equipment, benefits such as cost of operations and sound levels push the tipping point. Green energy, for example, was seen as an outlier until its price dropped below that of nuclear or fossil fuels. But industrial equipment is expensive to replace, so the tipping may occur more slowly as aging equipment is replaced out of necessity rather than as an optional improvement. A Colorado company has built an energy-efficient electrified heat pump boiler that the company claims could be up to twice as efficient as resistive boilers. Industry accounts for around 10% of global carbon dioxide pollution and relies heavily on steam to transfer heat, sterilize equipment and goods, and separate chemicals—a practice that generates more than 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide pollution per year. So a more efficient boiler could have a dramatic effect on industry carbon emissions. But while the operating costs are reduced and the cost of heat pump technology is declining , the company may still struggle to compete against the very low cost of natural-gas-fueled boilers in some markets. Climate policies that incentivize reducing industrial emissions could help make these technologies more appealing.   Other tipping points we're watching The issues above are just a small sampling of the change afoot. We're also watching enterprise adoption of AI—what use cases will gain traction (and what the ripple effects will be). The seesaw battle over return-to-the-office policies. And whether AI programming assistants mean "the end of programming as we know it " or simply a new definition of programming—one that actually expands the market for programming and programmers. This message was sent to alexvarboffin.abbb@blogger.com. You are receiving this because you've signed up to receive email from us. Privacy Policy | Unsubscribe From All | Unsubscribe From Next:Economy O'Reilly Media, Inc., 1005 Gravenstein Highway North, Sebastopol, CA, 95472 (707) 827-7000