Planning for the difficult future

Climate risks and the chance to make things better.

Next:Economy Newsletter Dorothea Lange, "Migratory family traveling across the desert in search of work in the cotton at Roswell, New Mexico. U.S. Route 70, Arizona," 1937 (modified)   The future won't be like the past. So let's plan for it now. This year, more than half the population of the world will head to the polls to decide elections that will have far-reaching consequences. We're facing a passel of climate tipping points, and it will take coordinated action from all our governments to mitigate the worst of the harms. Unfortunately, some are already stepping back from their climate pledges . But ignoring the problem—or worse, making light of it to feed an anti-science political base—won't make it disappear, and the impacts will be felt everywhere (albeit unequally). As we learned with COVID, we should be wary of those pushing for a return to normal. We need to accept that "the future will not be like the past," as I argued at the beginning of the pandemic. The only way forward is to plan for the crises that it seems clear we'll face.   Private home insurance may not be worth the risk We've touched on the turmoil in the insurance industry before, but this article from Bloomberg's Leslie Kaufman, Saijel Kishan, and Nadia Lopez vividly explains why the math behind private homeowners insurance no longer adds up and what's at stake—for states and for homeowners—when insurance companies fail. With no available private options, homeowners have to turn to underfunded state and federal programs that, as Kaufman, Kishan, and Lopez note, have no game plan on how to "cover claims in the wake of a truly major catastrophe." "Hardening" homes against climate risk can help, but the only fail-safe solution will be moving to a safer location. But with a large share of Americans' wealth tied up in real estate , this isn't an easily workable solution. As Robert Hartwig, a director at the Risk and Uncertainty Management Center at the University of South Carolina, points out in the article, "We've been incentivizing people to locate properties in hazard-prone areas for many decades. . . .It's a legacy that we're going to have to deal with." + More from Bloomberg: "US, Philippines Pay Highest Economic Price for Climate-Fueled Weather."   How government can manage climate migration As homes become uninsurable and certain areas less hospitable to human life, leaving will be the only recourse, triggering widespread migration. In Noema, Justin Vassallo takes a deep dive into the public policies we'll need to implement to pull off a planned climate migration , including revitalizing areas in the Midwest and Northeast that are likely to receive migrants and investing in social programs that will support those whose lives are upended (which may turn out to be most of us). There are lots of moving parts to consider, but Vassallo is optimistic that it can be done—and in a way that boosts the country's outlook. Daunting as it sounds, migration policy can be implemented in a manner that appeals to, and revives, what is at present a dormant tradition of civic mobilization. There is a surfeit of towns and small cities desperate for a new raison d'être—an impetus to produce critical goods, attract creative people and play some positive role in the national imagination. The reciprocity between migration policy and the country's long-term industrial strategy has enormous potential to provide this and thereby emulate the virtuous cycle of productivity, innovation and rising living standards that drove the second industrial revolution and postwar growth. + Grist's Kate Yoder offers a complementary view, arguing, "Climate havens may not be something nature hands us, but something we have to build ourselves. And finding refuge doesn't necessarily entail moving across the country; given the right preparations, it could be closer to home than you think." + From Gizmodo: "These US Cities May Depopulate by 2100, Researchers Say." + From the Guardian: "Financial Toll of Climate Crisis Hitting Women Harder, UN Says."   The best time to plan for a food crisis is now Uninhabitable real estate may also be unfavorable to the agriculture on which the world's population depends. And human activity is further degrading arable land. A sweeping food crisis grows ever more likely, and the European Union has taken notice. As Bloomberg's Agnieszka de Sousa reports, recently "60 European Union and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and a few journalists" came together to stress-test the food system and brainstorm solutions . It's a good start and a great example of how we can begin to proactively tackle some of these overwhelming challenges. + There's lots more to be done. Bloomberg also recently revealed that the "UK is far from climate proof due to poor planning." And the same is likely true of every other country. + More bad news: A study has found that the "ocean system that moves heat [may be getting] closer to collapse, which could cause weather chaos." Yes, this was the plot of the disaster flick The Day After Tomorrow, although that film wasn't exactly celebrated for its scientific rigor. The ramifications are enormous, but it's worth noting that not all scientists agree with the findings.   Fixing the things that have been broken As I wrote in Welcome to the 21st Century, "We can try to protect the past from the future, or we can embrace the changes and use the opportunity to fix things that have been broken. We can surf the waves of change rather than being swept away by them." So let's end with good news—some of the ways people have started to mend our tattered planet: Financial incentives for clean energy. Mandated climate disclosures (even if they don't include Scope 3 emissions). Rewilding land and planting trees (but not too many). Protecting nature with " with crazy shapes." Making our cities spongier. Repurposing decommissioned oil rigs. Wind-powered cargo ships. New pilot projects in NYC. And of course " meat rice."   —Tim O’Reilly and Peyton Joyce This message was sent to alexvarboffin.abbb@blogger.com. You are receiving this because you've signed up to receive email from us. Privacy Policy | Unsubscribe From All | Unsubscribe From Next:Economy O'Reilly Media, Inc., 1005 Gravenstein Highway North, Sebastopol, CA, 95472 (707) 827-7000